Statboy
🏈
2025 NFL Betting Market: Favorites, ATS & Upsets
What closing NFL betting markets predicted—and where reality diverged—across all 285 games of the 2025 season.
A game-level look at how the 2025 NFL betting market performed across all 285 regular-season and playoff games. Each consensus line is the median of the available sportsbook closing lines. Favorite cover rate excludes pick’em games and pushes; team ATS records and average performance use that same consensus spread.
Updated
Favorite cover rate
48.6%
Against the spread
Average spread miss (pts)
9.7
Versus closing spread
Over win rate
52.3%
Excludes four pushes
All 32 teams vs. the consensus spread
Consensus median closing spread; positive values beat the market
| # | Team | Games | ATS record | Avg. vs. spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 | 15–5 | 8.07 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 | 12–6 | 6.17 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 21 | 14–7 | 5.31 |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 19 | 10–9 | 4.42 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 20 | 12–8 | 3.00 |
| 6 | Indianapolis Colts | 17 | 9–7–1 | 2.62 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 19 | 12–7 | 2.42 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 | 8–9 | 1.76 |
| 9 | New York Giants | 17 | 9–8 | 1.47 |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 19 | 11–7–1 | 1.21 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 19 | 9–10 | 0.87 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | 19 | 9–10 | 0.79 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | 18 | 11–7 | 0.61 |
| 14 | Detroit Lions | 17 | 8–9 | 0.12 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 18 | 9–9 | -0.33 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | 17 | 9–8 | -0.53 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 | 9–9 | -0.53 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | 17 | 8–9 | -0.56 |
| 19 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 6–11 | -1.15 |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 18 | 10–8 | -1.44 |
| 21 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | 8–9 | -1.53 |
| 22 | Green Bay Packers | 18 | 7–11 | -2.03 |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 8–8–1 | -2.24 |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 17 | 8–9 | -2.26 |
| 25 | Baltimore Ravens | 17 | 6–11 | -2.56 |
| 26 | Dallas Cowboys | 17 | 7–10 | -2.74 |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | 5–12 | -2.76 |
| 28 | Washington Commanders | 17 | 7–10 | -2.76 |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | 17 | 7–9–1 | -3.91 |
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | 17 | 6–11 | -4.18 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 17 | 7–10 | -5.62 |
| 32 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17 | 7–10 | -6.21 |
Biggest upsets
Largest consensus underdogs to win outright
| # | Date | Underdog | Favorite | Spread | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025-11-02 | Carolina Panthers | Green Bay Packers | 13.0 | Carolina Panthers 16–13 Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | 2025-11-30 | Carolina Panthers | Los Angeles Rams | 10.0 | Los Angeles Rams 28–31 Carolina Panthers |
| 3 | 2025-11-02 | Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | 9.5 | Minnesota Vikings 27–24 Detroit Lions |
| 4 | 2026-01-04 | Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | Cleveland Browns 20–18 Cincinnati Bengals |
| 5 | 2025-10-02 | San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | 8.0 | San Francisco 49ers 26–23 Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | 2025-11-09 | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | 8.0 | Buffalo Bills 13–30 Miami Dolphins |
| 7 | 2025-11-27 | Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | 8.0 | Cincinnati Bengals 32–14 Baltimore Ravens |
| 8 | 2025-09-21 | Cleveland Browns | Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | Green Bay Packers 10–13 Cleveland Browns |
| 9 | 2025-10-05 | Tennessee Titans | Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | Tennessee Titans 22–21 Arizona Cardinals |
| 10 | 2025-10-05 | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | 7.5 | New England Patriots 23–20 Buffalo Bills |
Biggest spread misses
Largest gaps between the consensus spread and final margin
| # | Date | Matchup | Expected home margin | Actual home margin | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025-09-21 | Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings | 3.0 | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| 2 | 2025-09-21 | Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers | -4.5 | 30.0 | 34.5 |
| 3 | 2025-11-16 | Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.0 | 29.0 | 32.0 |
| 4 | 2025-10-05 | Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens | -2.5 | -34.0 | 31.5 |
| 5 | 2025-10-26 | Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons | 7.0 | -24.0 | 31.0 |
| 6 | 2025-12-07 | Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings | 1.0 | 31.0 | 30.0 |
| 7 | 2026-01-17 | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | 7.0 | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| 8 | 2025-10-05 | Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts | 7.0 | 34.0 | 27.0 |
| 9 | 2025-11-27 | Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens | 8.0 | -18.0 | 26.0 |
| 10 | 2025-10-19 | Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.0 | -28.0 | 25.0 |
Wildest totals
Five largest overs and five largest unders
| # | Date | Matchup | Closing total | Actual total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025-11-02 | Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals | 51.5 | 89 | Over by 37.5 · Chicago Bears 47–42 Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2 | 2025-09-28 | Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys | 46.5 | 80 | Over by 33.5 · Green Bay Packers 40–40 Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | 2025-10-26 | New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals | 43.5 | 77 | Over by 33.5 · New York Jets 39–38 Cincinnati Bengals |
| 4 | 2025-12-18 | Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks | 42.0 | 75 | Over by 33 · Los Angeles Rams 37–38 Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | 2025-09-14 | New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys | 44.5 | 77 | Over by 32.5 · New York Giants 37–40 Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | 2026-01-03 | Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers | 48.5 | 16 | Under by 32.5 · Seattle Seahawks 13–3 San Francisco 49ers |
| 7 | 2025-11-10 | Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers | 45.0 | 17 | Under by 28 · Philadelphia Eagles 10–7 Green Bay Packers |
| 8 | 2025-12-14 | Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals | 51.5 | 24 | Under by 27.5 · Baltimore Ravens 24–0 Cincinnati Bengals |
| 9 | 2026-01-11 | Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots | 45.5 | 19 | Under by 26.5 · Los Angeles Chargers 3–16 New England Patriots |
| 10 | 2026-01-25 | New England Patriots at Denver Broncos | 43.0 | 17 | Under by 26 · New England Patriots 10–7 Denver Broncos |
All games
Every 2025 season game · consensus median closing lines
| Date | Week | Matchup | Favorite | Spread | Final | Spread miss | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-08 | 1 | Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | — | — | Minnesota Vikings 27–24 Chicago Bears | 3.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | 4.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 17–16 Cleveland Browns | 3.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills | Baltimore Ravens | 1.5 | Baltimore Ravens 40–41 Buffalo Bills | 2.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 3.0 | Houston Texans 9–14 Los Angeles Rams | 2.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | 1.0 | Miami Dolphins 8–33 Indianapolis Colts | 24.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | 2.0 | San Francisco 49ers 17–13 Seattle Seahawks | 2.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 1.0 | Detroit Lions 13–27 Green Bay Packers | 13.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | 9.0 | Tennessee Titans 12–20 Denver Broncos | 1.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.0 | Pittsburgh Steelers 34–32 New York Jets | 1.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints | Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | Arizona Cardinals 20–13 New Orleans Saints | 1.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | New York Giants at Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | 6.0 | New York Giants 6–21 Washington Commanders | 9.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.5 | Carolina Panthers 10–26 Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons | — | — | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–20 Atlanta Falcons | 3.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | 2.5 | Las Vegas Raiders 20–13 New England Patriots | 9.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-05 | 1 | Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | 3.0 | Kansas City Chiefs 21–27 Los Angeles Chargers | 9.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-04 | 1 | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | 8.0 | Dallas Cowboys 20–24 Philadelphia Eagles | 4.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-15 | 2 | Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers | 3.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 20–9 Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-15 | 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans | Houston Texans | 3.0 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–19 Houston Texans | 4.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars 27–31 Cincinnati Bengals | 0.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts | Denver Broncos | 1.5 | Denver Broncos 28–29 Indianapolis Colts | 2.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | 5.5 | Buffalo Bills 30–10 New York Jets | 14.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.0 | Philadelphia Eagles 20–17 Kansas City Chiefs | 2.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints | San Francisco 49ers | 3.0 | San Francisco 49ers 26–21 New Orleans Saints | 2.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.0 | Seattle Seahawks 31–17 Pittsburgh Steelers | 18.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals | 7.0 | Carolina Panthers 22–27 Arizona Cardinals | 2.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | Miami Dolphins | 2.5 | New England Patriots 33–27 Miami Dolphins | 8.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | 12.5 | Cleveland Browns 17–41 Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings | 3.0 | Atlanta Falcons 22–6 Minnesota Vikings | 19.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 6.5 | Chicago Bears 21–52 Detroit Lions | 24.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans | Los Angeles Rams | 5.5 | Los Angeles Rams 33–19 Tennessee Titans | 8.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | 4.5 | New York Giants 37–40 Dallas Cowboys | 1.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-11 | 2 | Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 3.0 | Washington Commanders 18–27 Green Bay Packers | 6.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-22 | 3 | Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | 4.5 | Detroit Lions 38–30 Baltimore Ravens | 12.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings | 3.0 | Cincinnati Bengals 10–48 Minnesota Vikings | 35.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.0 | Kansas City Chiefs 22–9 New York Giants | 7.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.0 | Pittsburgh Steelers 21–14 New England Patriots | 6.0 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis Colts | 6.0 | Indianapolis Colts 41–20 Tennessee Titans | 15.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.5 | Houston Texans 10–17 Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns | Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | Green Bay Packers 10–13 Cleveland Browns | 10.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers | Atlanta Falcons | 4.5 | Atlanta Falcons 0–30 Carolina Panthers | 34.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | 3.5 | Los Angeles Rams 26–33 Philadelphia Eagles | 3.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 7.0 | New Orleans Saints 13–44 Seattle Seahawks | 24.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | 1.5 | Arizona Cardinals 15–16 San Francisco 49ers | 0.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | 1.5 | Dallas Cowboys 14–31 Chicago Bears | 18.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers | 2.5 | Denver Broncos 20–23 Los Angeles Chargers | 0.5 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | 3.0 | Las Vegas Raiders 24–41 Washington Commanders | 14.0 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | New York Jets 27–29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-18 | 3 | Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | Miami Dolphins 21–31 Buffalo Bills | 1.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-29 | 4 | New York Jets at Miami Dolphins | Miami Dolphins | 2.5 | New York Jets 21–27 Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | Over |
| 2025-09-29 | 4 | Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | 7.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 3–28 Denver Broncos | 17.5 | Under |